Do you think that turbulence has become much scarier than it used to be? No, the feeling is not deceiving you.
Air turbulence they can cause some nervousness and fear when a fairly normal flight turns into bouncing up and down. Experts have noticed an increase in turbulence in recent years. A recent study found that turbulence is getting worse and worse. A 2023 study by the American Geophysical Union analyzed global trends in clear air turbulence (CAT) and found increases at certain altitudes. The study also predicted that CAT will strengthen as response to future climate change – one more reason to stay buckled in while flying.
As it turns out, even more turbulence can be expected in the future. A study by British scientists from the University of Reading showed that between 1979 and 2020, the number of CATs in the air over the North Atlantic increased. However, the number of major and severe CATs increased the most - by as much as 55 percent. This kind of trend was also observed in the area of the continental part of the USA, and to a lesser extent also over Europe and the Middle East.
And why is the turbulence getting worse?
A study that analyzed CAT scans collected between 1979 and 2020 found a marked increase in them. According to the report, the deterioration can be attributed to climate change. The ever-increasing amount of warm air due to carbon dioxide emissions accelerates the intensity and prevalence of CAT.
The warm air rises in a jet and creates invisible shear winds that cause turbulence in the clean air. Climate change is changing the patterns of jets and storms, and by 2025, according to an article published in Reader's Digest, winter severe turbulence is expected to become so common that it will no longer be severe, but moderate.
How dangerous is turbulence?
Of course, it's anything but fun when the plane starts to toss back and forth. But despite the rather terrifying scenes, experts are calm that even strong turbulence cannot crash commercial planes. These are subjected to numerous stress tests during testing, thus ensuring adequate safety for their operation. Of course, injuries to passengers that can occur during turbulence cannot be ruled out - most often neck and head injuries. This is why it is recommended that your seat belt be fastened at all times during the summer.
