In an age where machines are learning to create art, write essays and even dream, the concept of artificial general intelligence (AGI) - AI capable of surpassing humans in any cognitive domain - is slowly getting closer to reality. How will this groundbreaking phenomenon known as the singularity shape our future? Will it usher in a golden age of human longevity, or are we on the brink of a technological dystopia? In order to tackle these complex questions, we have summarized certain thoughts of Dr. David Wood, visionary futurist and author whose recent work 'The Singularity Principles' explores practical steps towards a beneficial singularity. we have studied his writings about the future and reflections and present them to you in a summary of interviews.
AGI: A Fast Approaching Reality
The progress in AI has been incredible. Like observes Wood, “When you look at what the new generative models are doing – like ChatGPT, DALL-E 2, Google's PaLM and many other systems – they're not perfect, they make mistakes, they're sometimes frustrating, but they're amazingly correct in many cases.” These improvements significantly accelerated the expected timeline for AGI. Forecasting platform Metaculus has moved its average forecast for AGI from the 2040s to 2027. Wood himself is more cautious, suggesting that AGI could arrive by 2035. So it artificial intelligence on the way to the singularity – that's for sure.
This accelerated timeline is both exciting and terrifying. As the old wisdom goes, "With great power comes great responsibility."
Artificial Intelligence: The Elixir of Life?
Wood is a proponent of the idea that AGI and singularity may have been a cure for human longevity. He points to DeepMind's AlphaFold as proof of AI's potential to solve complex scientific problems, such as understanding protein folding, a mystery that has puzzled scientists for more than half a century.
Further, AI has revolutionized the drug discovery process. “Unfortunately, since the 1950s it has taken longer and longer to discover drugs - it has become an extremely expensive business to develop a drug. However, more and more companies are now using various AI methods to improve their capabilities – whether designing molecules from scratch or testing them. In terms of what AI can do for medicine, it is already very positive.”
Wood also predicts that AGI and the singularity could help better model human biology, allowing for more profound discoveries about aging than we have made so far. "This acceleration could help us reverse the damage of aging and return us to a more youthful state of health and vitality," he says. "This could lead to this longevity escape velocity, where we not only extend our lifespan slightly, but for every year we live, we add more than 12 months of healthy life expectancy."
Singularity: Blessing or Curse?
However, with the potential for prosperity comes the risk of disaster. Wood says the danger that AI could be abused, or that AI could go in the wrong direction based on its own intentions, is very real.
"I think both scenarios are possible until the middle of this century. Right now I think around 60% we are likely to get a very good outcome and maybe 30% we are likely to be in the new dark ages or worse. I think there's also about a 10% chance that we'll continue to live like we do today because AI didn't develop as we expected.”
Wood says it's critical that humanity takes an active role in shaping the future of AI. "Will we pay enough attention to all possibilities? Will we understand them enough? Are we going to settle for a Hollywood-style superficial understanding?”
“In order to work together effectively, I believe that as a democratic society we need to take back control of technology to ensure that AI creates a public good and is not created solely based on visions of profit. The free market isn't always the best at determining what should be accelerated, and we can't let companies make decisions on their own. They may say they are well-intentioned, but good intentions are not enough. We need to have the right security frameworks in place, the right auditing and the right monitoring. Because the dangers are simply too great.”
"More and more people are realizing that we have to rise to this challenge, and that's my hope for 2023. It's up to us to start a wave of concern, a wave of understanding, with people who are willing to roll up their sleeves and think seriously about how we can we get the best out of technology. It could be wonderful; it could be paradise – if we do it right.”
In light of these performances, we can only imagine what the future holds. As the old saying goes, "the future belongs to those who believe in the beauty of their dreams." And the dream of a world where technology can improve and extend our lives may not seem so out of reach.
In a survey conducted at Stanford University in 2022, found that using artificial intelligence can increase cancer detection rates by as much as 30%. This is just one example of how AI can change our lives for the better.
However, at the same time, it is necessary to recognize the potential dangers and challenges that artificial intelligence brings. Wood's warnings are very clear: to achieve the best results, we need to have the right security frameworks, auditing and controls in place.
It is therefore imperative that we do not ignore ethical issues and strive for a balanced approach that will ensure that technology works for the benefit of all of us.
Accepting this responsibility is crucial as we approach an era that many call the singularity. As Wood said, "It's up to us to start a wave of concern, a wave of understanding, with people willing to roll up their sleeves and think seriously about how we can get the best out of technology."
Because as Einstein said: "Only those who risk going too far can find out how far they can go." So, are we willing to take the risk and see how far we can go?
Contribution adapted and summarized based on reflections. longevity.technology
Chorus taken after longevity.technology
