Slovenian mathematicians warn, that the exponential function of the spread of the virus in Slovenia is even worse than in Italy. Prof. dr. Dragan Marušić he spoke about the COVID-19 virus and its exponential growth. Action and isolation is needed today. Otherwise, in 10 days we will already have 1,000 patients with the COVID-19 virus. Here, the virus spreads faster than in Italy, and this is a mathematical fact!
dr. Dragan Marušič, who talked about the virus COVID-19 and its exponential growth, is regular professor of mathematics at the University of Primorska. Prof. dr. Dragan Marušič explained the spread of the coronavirus COVID-19 associated with exponential growth and which measures, according to the findings, would be most suitable for containing or at least slowing down the spread of the infection.
VIDEO: dr. Dragan Marušić
Factor 1.4: or how the virus will spread mathematically
Very simply put: multiply the number of patients today by 1.4. This is current increase in the number of patients in Slovenia. According to this formula, we will have 600 patients behind the virus COVID-19 in 7 days, so next friday. Of course, the growth can be exponential, which means that the growth can be higher, since the virus is spreading relatively unchecked in our country.
An example of calculating the spread of infection COVID-19 with a factor of 1.4:
- today = 57 x 1.4 = 79.8
- tomorrow = 79.8 x 1.4 = 111.72
- Saturday = 111.72 x 1.4 = 156.40
- Sunday = 218
- Monday (16. 3. 2020) = 306
- Tuesday = 429
- Wednesday = 600
- Thursday = 841
- Friday = 1,177 patients
What can we expect in the next few days?
If the competent authorities do not act immediately, it will Slovenia stood still at the end of next week, in a comparable manner to Italy. So we can expect:
- termination school lessons (by Monday next week);
- prohibition of all collections, even those under 100 (as early as this weekend);
- constipation of all shopping centers with the exception of supply stores, pharmacies, post offices and banks (Wednesday);
- restriction of movement of individuals on urgent errands and work (Wednesday);
- resignation of Planica (even events without spectators).
The infection cannot be contained! But it can be limited by isolation
Many countries and experts around the world have found that their countries are on the same path as Italy is today. That they are on the same exponential function of the spread of the virus. Thus, they speedily prepare for the worst.
The situation is the same everywhere: a graph of expected infection by country and trends in other countries.V Slovenia already 300 infected represents the same number of infected people per million inhabitants as Italy currently has and s the same degree of seriousness of the situation! In Slovenia, even small numbers are critical. V Slovenia we will reach a comparable level of infection with Italy already on Monday, March 16.
