How many more years will humans be allowed to drive? Let's be honest, humans are already often more dangerous than useful behind the wheel. The statistics don't lie: speeding, phones in hand, egos bigger than cars... And when we're overtaken by artificial intelligence that doesn't fall asleep, drink, or watch TikTok while driving, a serious question arises: Will we even be allowed to drive ourselves? How many more years will humans be allowed to drive? This is the year that human driving will be banned!
How many more years will people be allowed to drive? Welcome to the future where it might be human driver classified somewhere between dodo bird and rotary dial telephoneSelf-driving vehicles are no longer science fiction – they are a reality that is pushing the gas pedal harder with each passing year.
So we are investigating: how close are we to the point where human driving restricted or even banned on public roads – and what we can learn from the history of automotive innovation.
Autonomous driving: from startup to status quo
In ten years, autonomous technology has made a bigger leap than the average Slovenian driver in third gear. Companies like Waymo, Tesla and Baidu have gone from promises to reality – their robotaxis Today they are already roaming the streets of San Francisco and Wuhan as if they were part of the script of the series Black Mirror, just without the dystopian undertones (for now).
In San Francisco, Waymo has already done about 5 % of all taxi rides, in less than a year they went from testing to everyday life. In Wuhan, they drive every day thousands of people without a driverSo technology is not only spreading rapidly – it is exponentially, like a fad that never goes away.
And if it is Elon Musk warned back in 2015 that manual driving would become too dangerous for society, it sounded like another of his Saturday "hot takes" at the time - but today the numbers are on his side. 90% of traffic accidents are caused by humans. And cars? They don't know fatigue, ego, or attacks of bad music that lead to irrational decisions.
Research, such as IDTechEx, estimate that autonomous vehicles will safer than the average driver by 2024 or 2025And when a machine is a better driver than a human – driving will become a game of numbers, no longer feelings.
When luxury becomes the standard – and then the obligation! How many more years will people be allowed to drive?
If the history of motoring teaches us anything, it is that every new technology starts as a prestigious affair for the rich and adventurous – then becomes something that you can't not have anymore.
Remember ABS: in the 70s it was a status symbol, but today if your car doesn't have one, you raise an eyebrow like you would if you were offered an apartment without hot water. The same goes for adaptive cruise control, airbags, AEB (Automatic Emergency Braking) – all of this has gone from “additional equipment” to legal obligation.
Why is this important? Because they are assistance systems (ADAS), the precursors to self-driving, are already practically everywhere. And just as ABS has become the norm, so too will autonomous driving sooner or later expected, if not mandatory.
AEB, for example, will be in the US mandatory in all new cars by 2029The adoption cycle is getting shorter – what used to take 30 years now takes a decade. And self-driving has another ace up its sleeve: speed of improvement, which follows the logic of a computer chip, not a car transmission. So?! How many more years will people be allowed to drive?
When will we have to return the keys? Approximate timeline – How many more years will people be allowed to drive?
No, they won't take the steering wheel out of people's hands overnight (unless they have a reason, but let's leave that for a dark comedy of the future). The process will be gradual – but not slow.
2025–2030:
- Autonomous vehicles become at least as safe as humans.
- They appear urban areas without a manual driving license – first as an experiment, then as a model for wider implementation.
- Manual driving? Still allowed, though increasingly expensive and less desirable (higher insurance premiums, penalties, fees).
2030–2040:
- Most new vehicles have self-driving functions, at least partially.
- They appear roads with a requirement for autonomous driving – for example, lanes on highways where manual driving is not allowed.
- Human drivers become a “less safe choice”, which triggers legislative pressures.
2040–2050:
- Autonomous vehicles are dominant form of transport.
- Ban on manual driving on public roads becomes a reality – initially in developed countries.
- A car with a steering wheel? Relic, permitted for a museum, racetrack, or some very special road with a 5 km/h limit.
After 2050:
- Manual driving is special event: something you do in a vintage car on a Sunday morning, with nostalgia and limited speed.
- Urban traffic is fully autonomous. No one is “looking for parking” anymore, because an algorithm does it for them.
- Driving license it may just be a memory – or a certificate for a hobby, like a diving exam.
Security: the strongest argument (and the final nail in the coffin)
Every year, people die on the roads. 1.2 million peopleNot because of natural disasters or meteors – but due to human behavior behind the wheelIf technology can reduce that number by 90 %, the public will begin to wonder: Isn't it unethical NOT to use self-driving?
Let's remember: also smoking on the plane was once commonplace. Today, it sounds like science fiction. When society realizes that something is dangerous – and that there is a safe alternative – change no longer seems radical, but logical.
Just as horses did not disappear – they just retreated from cities – so will they people behind the wheelA similar fate awaits us: from everyday driver to nostalgic rider.
Conclusion: Buckle up – in the future, a machine will drive you
Will a person still be allowed to drive? Yes. But more than a privilege, no more than a right.
Everything indicates that it will be mid-century (around 2050) human driving on public roads severely restricted or prohibited, in the name of safety, efficiency and – let's face it – because we humans are pretty confused drivers.
But don't panic: just as horse lovers still ride, we too will have our own racetrack, our own vintage road, and our own Saturday therapy with the wheel in our hands. Only on We won't be able to drive the highway alone at 7am anymore..
So, enjoy it while you can: every ride today can be history. And the next time your car parks itself, remember – You were just an extra! In the autonomous revolution, humans still have a role, but the director is someone else.