How far are we from fully autonomous driving?! Let's answer this key question of the future. Changes in the way we move from point A to point B, have always represented milestones in human progress. Autonomous vehicles, now no longer the stuff of science fiction but becoming part of our reality, promise to change our perception of mobility. In particular, Tesla's fully self-driving (FSD) technology suggests that fully autonomous driving is closer than we thought. But when will we reach the point where every new car on the road is fully self-driving?

Development of FSD technology

Company Tesla has recently released its latest FSD Beta technology demo video filmed on the streets of Austin, Texas​​1​​2​​3​​. However, Tesla did not specify which version of the FSD Beta was shown in the video, but did remove the steering wheel pressure warnings during the demonstration. Tesla already released last year FSD beta version to its North American customers, with 60,000 Tesla car owners getting access to the beta so far of the FSD software​​. With advances in FSD technology development, Tesla has increased the price of its software package by 2,000 dollars​​.

Tesla Full Self-Driving capability demo in Austin

FSD capability features use vision neural networks to perceive & understand the world, just like humans do.
 
Via our unique fleet learning approach, we are able to collect anonymized data from our vehicles—meaning the neural… pic.twitter.com/CWAS5h0jGH

— Tesla (@Tesla) October 17, 2023

How far are we from fully autonomous driving?

The need for driving tests

With the development of autonomous vehicles, the question arises whether we will still need driving tests at all. According to opinion of the IEEE Institute by 2040, autonomous vehicles will represent the majority of vehicles on the road, so we may no longer need special training for point-to-point driving. Some countries, such as the US, have already issued final rules that eliminate the need for human controls in fully autonomous vehicles​​.

Impact on traffic and public transport

Autonomous vehicles will undoubtedly affect traffic and public transport. Researchers at MIT have found that autonomous vehicles combined with public transit will be able to reduce the frequency of inefficient bus lines, with autonomous vehicles filling gaps in service coverage. Although the total supply of buses will decrease, the average travel time will decrease and the cost of the trip will increase, but the overall travel cost will decrease when the value of time saved is taken into account​​. Autonomous vehicles will also be able to improve traffic efficiency and reduce road congestion, as they will be able to improve the traffic capacity and efficiency of current transport systems​​.

Tesla's Robotaxi and the budget car

Tesla's upcoming $25,000 Tesla 2 car and Robotaxi will be designed in a futuristic and stylish way Cybertruck. The first was announced at Tesla's Battery Day 2020, when Elon Musk revealed that the new 4680 battery would make such a vehicle possible. It was initially planned for 2023, but was pushed back as Tesla focused on ramping up production Model Y and the development of autonomous driving. On the other hand, the idea of a Robotax was first discussed in November 2021, with Musk wanting the vehicle to have no steering wheel or pedals. In August 2022, Musk finally got the go-ahead for his vision and locked down a concept that doesn't allow for driver input — meaning it will be a robot taxi without a steering wheel.

The future of autonomous driving? Or when will we reach this automotive utopia? Tech moguls are firmly treading the path of progress, but with each step, the goal still seems a little more elusive. While Elon Musk seems to be leading the race with his Tesla, the timeline is still a bit blurry. Regulators aren't as enthusiastic as he is, and the economy is still a bit capricious. The biggest challenge remains how to convince the public that sitting in a car driven by a boy is safe. But if the stars align—technology reaches its zenith, laws become friendlier, and consumers open their wallets as well as their heads—we could see self-driving cars as the standard in the next decade or two. And while that sounds interesting, I will miss that feeling of holding the steering wheel myself and driving the car exactly where I want it to go. Ah, the freedom to ride, I hope we don't lose you too soon! Author: Jan Macarol 

Efficient road infrastructure

Efficient road infrastructure will be crucial for the efficient operation of autonomous vehicles. Autonomous vehicles will be able to improve traffic efficiency and reduce road congestion, as they will be able to improve the traffic capacity and efficiency of current transportation systems. Tesla Robot taxis, for example, is designed to reduce the cost of ridesharing to about $0.18 per mile—even less when converted to a kilometer, well below the current $2 to $3 per mile ridesharing costs. With the low-cost car and Robotaxis covering mobility needs, a robust and efficient road infrastructure will be needed to ensure these vehicles perform better.

How far are we from fully autonomous driving? The road to fully autonomous driving is still full of challenges and questions. However, the technological advances we're seeing from companies like Tesla suggest we may be reaching a point in the next decade where autonomous driving will be the norm, not the exception. But whether we are ready for these changes remains an open question.