In the editorial office, we dug into the numbers and comprehensive statistics of the outbreak in Italy and concluded that the situation in Slovenia at the very beginning of the outbreak was not good. Already 250 infected will mean the same level of severity of the epidemic as in Italy. Serious and excessive action is recommended! Only in this way can the long-term consequences be contained.
Italy is completely paralyzed, and a good quarter of the population is under war conditions. Almost everything is closed. But it is necessary to realize that only a good two weeks have passed since the outbreak.
We entered the data about the outbreak in the editorial office in the table and found that the situation in the last days in Slovenia raises considerable concern. Namely, we started the incubation period with much higher numbers than the Italians, who successfully fought against the outbreak for a good month. Number 16 however, in epidemiological terms, considering the number of inhabitants of Slovenia, it is already alarming. And it practically represents an absolute number 480 infected compared to the population of Italy.
Number of cases per million
It is necessary to compare on the same denominators: the number of inhabitants per country. Slovenia currently has 7.7 patients per million inhabitants, while Italy has 122 patients per million inhabitants (2 million vs. 60 million). This means that Slovenians will reach the same level of the epidemic already at 250 infected citizens. This is also why the concern about the insufficient measures of those responsible is justified.
Slovenia is currently in the incubation phase
Slovenia is in the incubation phase, which means that the virus has appeared. That we recognized him. This phase is followed by an incubation phase of a week or two, the time in which all cases will be shown. The problem is that at the same time a bunch of new cases are created on a daily basis. This is also why this "interest - interest" account of depositing on the principal is happening. At the end of the week, we can already expect alarming numbers. Or rather, it will be a miracle if it is otherwise!
The number of doctors and medical workers in Slovenia is significantly lower than in Italy
Compared to Slovenia Italians have one doctor per 250 inhabitants (resource:eurostat), while in Slovenia there is one doctor per 322 inhabitants. This number is important mainly because of the larger idea of the picture it represents coronavirus epidemic. However, it is necessary to be aware that the medical staff and the health care system will be crucial in the coming days. As we all know, this is not in the best condition in Slovenia.
By the end of the week, there may be up to 600 cases of infection in Slovenia, the vast majority of which will remain unidentified
In epidemics, the key is statistics and understanding statistics per million. The key is the algorithm and the exponent with which the virus spreads. It seems that Slovenian doctors and those in charge do not understand basic statistical data, which indicate that urgent measures should be taken practically today, mainly with the aim of curbing the long-term consequences for the economy. The latter can be disastrous. The problem is the amount of cases we can still control, as each case takes a lot of logistical effort to investigate contacts. With 30 cases, there may already be more than than 3.000. Slovenia cannot do it logistically investigation of all cases and isolation of a sufficient number of people. At the number 100, the system will definitely break down, or get out of control.
Interview: Dr Richard Hatchett (Important view of the Coronavirus)
The latest figures show a high mortality rate in Italy! Mortality rate of 6% among all already closed cases
Is it enough to look at the total number of deaths and the current number of cases, or what should we take into account?
The problem with just by dividing the total number of deaths and the total number of cases is that it does not count of unreported cases or delays from disease to death. Delay is key: if 100 people come to the hospital with Covid-19 on a given day and they're all still alive, that obviously doesn't mean the death rate is 0 percent. We have to wait until we know what ultimately happens to them, or how many of these cases will end in death. These numbers then show the mortality from the infection Covid-19, which must be compared with the number of already closed cases. Which is closer to reality. On this assumption, the death rate from the virus among recovered cases is just 6 percent, which is very worrying! And much higher than the official figures.
To date, they have been completed 66,133 cases, of whom had already succumbed to the disease 3,831 people – this figure represents 6 percent.
It's an epidemic - those in charge completely uneducated about basic terms
The most disturbing thing is that the officials do not know the basic terms: what is an epidemic and what defines it. If in Slovenian health care we have problems even with the fact that we do not know how to interpret terms correctly, then we can be very, very worried about everything else. How poorly educated we are is also witnessed by the irresponsible behavior of the very health workers who, at the time of writing this article, are responsible for 50 percent of all infections in Slovenia.
Diction of the term Epidemic - source: Wikipedia
Epidemic (from Greek epi- na (prefix) + demos people) it is sudden eruption and rapid spread some infectious diseases in the human population that far exceeds normal morbidity (the incidence) in this population. The definition thus depends on the expected frequency of the disease: a few cases of a rare disease in the population characterized as an epidemic, while many more frequent cases, e.g. a cold, no. Particularly severe and geographically widespread epidemics are characterized by the term pandemic.
Is the panic justified?
Good preparations for the days ahead are justified. The world will change, partially stop. The Government of the Republic of Slovenia should give more serious warnings, more serious orders and restrict movement. Unfortunately, there are no positive scenarios to be seen without drastic measures. Recognized epidemiologists warn that the coronavirus crisis can last for several months. Some believe that life will return to normal only at the end of next year. A large number of virologists are of the opinion that, in a black scenario, given the given characteristics of the virus, the latter can get even up to 70 percent of the world's population.
