While we in Europe are still spinning in circles about technological neutrality, banning internal combustion engines and protecting traditional manufacturers, China has done something completely different – it has sat down at the table and written a plan. Its new five-year plan for 2026-2030 sets out exactly how it intends to become a global “energy superpower” by the end of the decade. And if history is any indication, in five years’ time many will be amazed at how far China has come in such a short space of time.
This is what German scientist and battery developer Tom Bötticher points out, in his analysis that reveals what the Chinese plan really means for the battery industry, electromobility and the energy transition. His starting point is simple but inconvenient: these are not secret documents, but publicly announced goals – and that is why it is all the more interesting that most of the West simply overlooks them.
From quantity to quality
The key shift in the new plan is a change in mindset. China has not only focused on scale – that is, on increasingly larger and more numerous lithium-ion cell factories – but now wants to focus primarily on next generation quality and technologyInstead of endlessly increasing capacities, funds should now flow into the development of new chemistries that will reduce dependence on lithium and increase the energy density of batteries.
The goal stated by Bötticher and confirmed by independent sources is ambitious: batteries with an energy density of around 500 Wh/kg by 2030. This is significantly more than today's lithium-ion cells and represents a serious development leap. At the same time, new, stricter safety standards are expected to make life difficult for companies that currently produce cheap and defective goods - anyone who bets only on mass will have an increasingly difficult job in China.
"New Type Batteries": betting on sodium and solid electrolytes
China intends to solve its problems with the so-called new type batteries ("new type batteries") – an official umbrella term that includes sodium-ion, solid-state, redox flow and other non-standard batteries.
A special place belongs to sodium-ion batteries, which are expected to become a strategic alternative to lithium. The goal is to build a complete supply chain by 2030 and supply large energy storage systems and smaller electric cars with them. This reduces exposure to lithium price fluctuations and supply chain risks. And while in the West we are still debating whether sodium-ion batteries are “good enough” or “too expensive”, Chinese companies are simply putting them into mass production and improving them year after year. The price of a sodium cell is currently around 66 euros per kilowatt hour – still about twice as much as lithium, but the trend is clear.
Bötticher is soberingly realistic about solid-state batteries. Small-scale installation in vehicles is expected to begin around 2027, with wider commercialization after 2030 – more cautious Chinese voices even mention 2032 or 2033. The message is clear: anyone waiting to buy an electric car with a solid-state battery can wait a long time. For cars, solid-state batteries will be primarily a niche solution, if at all. They are much more interesting for aviation and drones, where energy density is more important than lifespan.
The real trump card: large energy storage units
Anyone who thinks that all this is just about cars is mistaken. The most visible item of the new five-year plan is large energy storage tanksFor the first time, the plan includes the goal of making China a true “energy superpower” – and grid-connected battery storage is a central, multi-billion-dollar asset. It is the combination of cheap renewables and mass storage that can ensure China’s long-term energy independence.
Battery Passport: Two Philosophies, Two Worlds
It's also interesting to compare the regulations. China and the EU actually have a similar goal: every battery should carry a kind of digital passport that tells where it comes from, what it's made of, and how it can be recycled. But the approaches are completely different.
The European Battery Passport covers the entire supply chain, from raw material extraction to recycling – a “cradle to grave” approach. It requires more than 80 data and it poses major bureaucratic challenges for companies, as they have to disclose detailed data from previous links in the chain. The EU does ensure transparency, but according to Bötticher, it is also creating a bureaucratic monster. The Chinese system, on the other hand, focuses mainly on the end of the battery's life - on recycling, traceability of used batteries and reporting on emissions. It is leaner and less bureaucratic.
What Europe should learn – and what it shouldn't
Bötticher's message is not a call for blind imitation. Europe must start thinking more strategically and long-term, and industrial policy must not only mean protecting traditional companies, but also actively promoting new technologies, new companies and local added value.
At the same time, it is worth emphasizing that China's plans are not infallible. China has noticeably fallen behind on the climate goals of the previous plan, the goals in the field of semiconductors were missed and quietly buried, the problems with excess capacity are real, and the dependence on imported raw materials exists there too. So Europe must find its own path - somewhere between Chinese state guidance and American faith in the market. Difficult, but not impossible.
The analysis is based on a video by German scientist and battery developer Tom Bötticher, and the data provided is cross-checked with independent sources on China's 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030).
